Minimizing uncertainty envelopes in trajectories of evolving ensemble members
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United States of America Patent
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Jan 30, 2018
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Apr 23, 2014
filing date -
Apr 23, 2014
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Abstract
A mechanism is provided in a data processing system for minimizing uncertainty envelopes in trajectories of evolving ensemble members. The mechanism generates a trajectory forecast of each member object of an ensemble based on an initial state-space and a model for predicting trajectories of the member objects to generate a plurality of trajectory forecasts. Each of the plurality of trajectory forecasts has an individual uncertainty envelope. The mechanism applies a classification algorithm on the plurality of trajectory forecasts to identify at least one group of member objects having similar trajectory forecasts, generates a reduced ensemble of member objects including the identified group of member objects, and reconfigures the state-space and the model for predicting trajectories. The mechanism generates an updated trajectory forecast of each member object of the reduced ensemble based on the reconfigured state-space and the reconfigured model for predicting trajectories of the member objects.
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