Computer-implemented system and method for generating a probabilistic forecast of photovoltaic fleet power generation
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United States of America Patent
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May 7, 2013
Grant Date -
Jan 31, 2013
app pub date -
May 2, 2012
filing date -
Jul 25, 2011
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Abstract
A computer-implemented system and method for generating a probabilistic forecast of photovoltaic fleet power generation is provided. A temporal distance between two locations is determined in proportion to cloud speed within a geographic region. Input clearness indexes are generated as a ratio of irradiance observations for one location, and clear sky irradiance. The clearness indexes are ordered into a time series. A clearness index correlation coefficient is determined as a function of temporal distance. The input clearness indexes are weighted by the clearness index correlation coefficient to form a time series of output clearness indexes. Means and standard deviations of both time series are respectively determined and combined into fleet irradiance statistics. Deterministic fleet power statistics are forecast as a function of the fleet irradiance statistics and photovoltaic fleet power rating. A time series of the forecast power statistics is generated by applying a time lag correlation coefficient.
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