Sales history decomposition
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United States of America Patent
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Dec 7, 2010
Grant Date -
Nov 17, 2005
app pub date -
Jan 12, 2005
filing date -
Jan 12, 2004
priority date (Note) -
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Abstract
A statistical system and method for filters sales history to yield two demand series--one that is time insensitive (i.e. function of price and promotional activities only) and another that is price & promotional activities insensitive (i.e. function of temporal factors only). Once this task is completed, then specialized econometric techniques can be used to model the former and specialized time series techniques can be used to model the latter. In one embodiment, the present invention provides method and related system comprising the iterative steps of: mapping definitions of sales data; time slotting of the sales data; aggregating the sales data; initial estimating of a trend in the sales data; computing de-trended sales history using the trend estimate; regressing to remove price, seasonal, and marketing instruments effects; removing the estimated seasonal, price and marketing instrument effects from the sales data; re-estimating trend effects from the sales data having the removed estimated seasonal, price and marketing instrument effects; and computing a de-trended and de-seasonalized sales data.
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