Importance

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Abstract

Systems and methods for simulating operational impact of unplanned maintenance using probabilistic models are provided. One aspect provides a computing system comprising one or more processing devices configured to provide a plurality of operational models with operational data comprising a route model, a preparation model, a fault model, and an unplanned maintenance delay model. The one or more processing devices is further configured to, using the plurality of operational models, execute an operational simulation that generates interactions between a route simulation and an unplanned maintenance simulation for a plurality of routes in a route schedule, wherein simulating each route of the plurality of routes comprises simulating whether a fault occurs using the fault model, if a simulated fault occurs, determining fault type for the simulated fault, calculating unplanned maintenance time, and calculating delay.

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First Claim