METHOD FOR ASSOCIATING PRECIPITATION FORECAST CAPABILITY WITH TELECONNECTION EFFECT BASED ON COEFFICIENTS OF DETERMINATION
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United States of America Patent
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Issued Date -
Jul 11, 2024
app pub date -
Oct 13, 2021
filing date -
Oct 13, 2021
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Abstract
Provides a method for associating a precipitation forecast capability with a teleconnection effect based on coefficients of determination, including following steps: acquiring historical forecast precipitation data, observed precipitation data, and a climate index sample sequence, and obtaining original sample data; establishing regression equations of observed precipitation and forecast precipitation, observed precipitation and a climate index, and observed precipitation and a union set of the forecast precipitation and the climate index, and calculating corresponding coefficients of determination through the regression equations; calculating variances explained by the forecast precipitation alone, by the climate index alone, and by the forecast precipitation and the climate index alone; processing the variances by means of bootstrapping to obtain a reference distribution of the variances; and comparing the original sample data with the reference distribution of the variances to obtain an association result of the precipitation forecast capability and the teleconnection effect.
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