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Abstract

There is provided a method for predicting the amount of corrosion in a steel including a step in which, based on a weather observation value W_M at a scheduled use point M of the steel, a corrosion index Q(t_Mi, W_M) is obtained for each past observation time t_Mi, extremal value statistical analysis is performed on time-series data of the corrosion index Q(t_Mi, W_M) between observation times t_M1 to t_Mn, and a maximal value Q_max(t_Fi) of the corrosion index within future evaluation periods t_F1 to t_Fn is estimated, and a corrosion amount estimation step in which a relational expression between a measured corrosion amount obtained in a corrosion test at a test point Z and the maximum value of a corrosion index Q(t_Zi, W_Z) obtained for each observation time t_Zi during a test period of the corrosion test based on a weather observation value W_Z at the test point Z is obtained in advance, the maximal value Q_max(t_Fi) of the corrosion index estimated above is introduced into the relational expression, and an estimated value of the amount of corrosion in the steel during the estimated period is obtained.

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