METHOD OF ASSESSING RISK OF POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH PENETRATION OF WIND POWER
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Apr 13, 2015
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Nov 28, 2014
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Abstract
A method of assessing risk of power system with high penetration of wind power includes following steps. A correlation coefficient between wind power and load is obtained, and a probability of negative peak shaving is calculated. A probability of extreme ramp rate under extreme weather conditions is obtained, wherein a probability distribution of the extreme ramp rate matches principles of HILF and LIHF. A PRNS, an ERNS, and a RI are obtained, optimal reserve demand is obtained utilizing Unit Commitment Model, and operation risk based on PRNS, ERNS, and RI is calculated. A relationship between frequency and consequence distribution of risk is obtained by calculating the operation risks during N days, dividing the operation risks into different risk levels, and calculating a frequency of each risk level, wherein the operation risks in each level have similar values.
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