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Abstract

An ultra-short-term forecasting method including real-time monitoring of the effect of upper and lower courses, comprising: obtaining ultra-short-term model forecast results through the model lattices based on the T639 global spectral model course library data source, the CALMET wind field diagnostic model and static data; establishing statistical equations on the effect of upper and lower courses between the corresponding reference index station and each target wind tower for obtaining the effect of upper and lower courses of the target wind towers based on the wind tower database of the target wind power base and combined with the wind direction and speed real-time monitoring data of the reference index stations in the upper and lower courses, forecasting the ultra-short-term wind speed changes of each target wind tower and correct combined with the ultra-short-term model forecast results to form forecasting of the ultra-short-term wind speed changes of the wind towers in the target wind power base; after repeated cycling, obtaining forecasting of the future ultra-short-term wind speed changes of the wind farms in the target wind power base at all altitudes in the target area. The forecasting method has high forecasting precision, good prediction accuracy and wide application range.

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