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Abstract

A method for predicting risk and designing safety management systems of complex production and process systems which has been applied to an FPSO System operating in deep waters. The methods for the design were derived from the inclusion of a weight index in a fuzzy class belief variable in the risk model to assign the relative numerical value or importance a safety device or system has contain a risk hazards within the barrier. The weights index distributes the relative importance of risk events in series or parallel in several interactive risk and safety device systems. The fault tree, the FMECA and the Bow Tie now contains weights in fizzy belief class for implementing safety management programs critical to the process systems. The techniques uses the results of neural networks derived from fuzzy belief systems of weight index to implement the safety design systems thereby limiting use of experienced procedures and benchmarks. The weight index incorporate Safety Factors sets SFri {0, 0.1, 0.2 . . . 1}, and Markov Chain Network to allow the possibility of evaluating the impact of different risks or reliability of multifunctional systems in transient state process. The application of this technique and results of simulation to typical FPSO/Riser systems has been discussed in this invention.

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First Claim