System and method for developing loss assumptions
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United States of America Patent
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Issued Date -
May 29, 2003
app pub date -
Nov 8, 2002
filing date -
Nov 29, 2001
priority date (Note) -
Abandoned
status (Latency Note)
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Abstract
A method for developing assumptions for use in evaluating the possible occurrence of an event comprises the steps of defining a plurality of factors correlated with each other to the event, assigning a plurality of levels to each factor, determining a relative occurrence rate for selected combinations of factors and levels, and assigning selected combinations to one of a plurality of cohorts. In certain embodiments, the method, and a corresponding system are used in designing an insurance product. The method may include the additional steps of assigning values to the levels and evaluating expected performance of the product based upon the values assigned to the levels and the expected loss distribution. The step of producing an expected loss distribution includes determining, for at least some of the selected combinations, a cumulative probability of occurrence, and determining, for at least one of the selected combinations, an incremental probability of occurrence.
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